Prediction Markets

France’s order to block Polymarket turns prediction-market risk into more than a question of odds, liquidity and resolution rules.

France’s action against Polymarket shows why event-market traders should treat legal access, KYC, settlement and withdrawals as part of the trade.

A recent paper comparing Polymarket-style threshold contracts with option-implied values shows why fragmented venues are not always easy arbitrage.

The latest Kalshi order is a reminder that event-contract risk is not only about being right on the event outcome.

CoinDesk reported huge World Cup prediction-market volume, a reminder that event contracts can look liquid while still carrying resolution, spread and crowding risk.

A recent arXiv paper compares Bitcoin threshold contracts on prediction markets with option-implied probabilities. Traders can use the idea, but the gap is not a free arbitrage button.

Polymarket is seeking U.S. approval for margin trading, a step that could deepen liquidity but also raises leverage and event-risk questions for crypto-native traders.

Polymarket’s U.S. affiliate has applied for a margin-related license, but any launch still depends on regulatory approval. Traders should treat event contracts as risk instruments, not simple opinion polls.

A move from fully funded event bets toward margin would make collateral, liquidation and rulebook approval central to prediction-market risk management.