Binance Options
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预测市场赔率和比特币期权价格不一致时，交易者不能只看套利表面
一篇近期论文比较预测市场门槛合约和期权隐含价值，提醒交易者重视场所分割和结算差异。
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Prediction-market odds and bitcoin options can disagree for reasons traders should respect
A recent paper comparing Polymarket-style threshold contracts with option-implied values shows why fragmented venues are not always easy arbitrage.
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比特币预测市场价格，不等于期权隐含概率
一篇近期 arXiv 论文比较了比特币门槛合约和期权隐含概率。交易者可以借鉴这种方法，但价差并不是免费的套利按钮。
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Bitcoin prediction markets are not the same signal as options prices
A recent arXiv paper compares Bitcoin threshold contracts on prediction markets with option-implied probabilities. Traders can use the idea, but the gap is not a free arbitrage button.